Part III turns to the impact of returning starting quarterbacks. Neither raw returning starters nor experience predicted success in the first two parts, so the question is whether the one position everybody watches behaves differently.
Part I concluded that the total number of returning starters had many flaws as a predictor. Part II weights those starters by experience, because a returning senior and a returning freshman plainly do not count the same.
Returning starters get quoted every preseason as though the count alone forecasts the year ahead. Part I of the series tests whether the number of returning starters has any predictive power on next season's results.
In college athletics, football is king, and the head coach is the most important hire an athletic director makes. This piece lines up what schools pay their staffs against what those staffs actually deliver on the field.